EU elections 2024: changes in policies & people (our updated forecasts)

EU elections 2024: changes in policies & people (our updated forecasts)

In this page you will find our updates regarding the anticipated changes in the policies of the EU and the people deciding those policies after the June 2024 EP elections.

We show: the projected seats per political group, the proportion of new MEPs, and how the majorities will shift in certain policy areas.

Note: in addition to this free service, we provide much more information as a private service (feel free to contact us at [email protected]).

The chart below shows the projection of the number of seats of each political group based on the current public opinion trends and the current party composition of each group. A bar with red at the top shows that this group is projected to lose seats, while a bar with green at the top indicates that this group is projected to gain seats. We can already observe that the trend of fragmentation of power (observed over the past decade) is likely to continue, as the bigger political groups (at the center) are shrinking and the smaller ones are growing.

However, the political groups are now racing to bring onboard new parties, in order to consolidate their share of seats. If we use qualitative information and educated guesses to pinpoint which party joins which group, then the picture could look like in the chart below:

These changes are very different in various parts of the EU, i.e. there are differences in the preferences of the citizens across regions. For example, in North-Western Europe EPP is losing ground, while the S&D is gaining. Notably, the nationalist ID group is projected to gain a substantial number of seats and to be neck-and-neck with the EPP and S&D. Conversely, in Southern Europe nationalist ID is losing seats, while the conservative ECR group is gaining substantially. EPP is also losing in its powerhouse of Central and Eastern Europe.

How will the possible coalitions look like? Any combination of political factions will find it difficult to reach a solid majority. The centrist EPP-S&D-Renew coalition that is behind the European Commission could count on between 55-60% of seats, less than in the past.

On the regulation of the internal market, however, the center-right EPP and the center-left S&D will compete, i.e. they are voting against each other and want to build separate coalitions. The chart below shows that none of the 2 camps will have a solid majority, hence the difference will be made by ad-hoc coalitions and the swing voters. Hence, it is increasingly critical to keep track of the positions of individual MEPs, and not just that of the political groups as a whole. Many of these MEPs will be new, as the chart below indicates.

Having a majority of new MEPs poses both risks and opportunities. Clearly, it wise to forecast who the new MEPs are going to be, what their interests and policy positions are likely to be. We are collecting all of this information and providing it to our premium subscribers as part of our EU2024 elections package.

The groups that will have the most new MEPs are those projected to grow the most, namely ECR and ID, while the Greens will replace about half of their MEPs.

How will the policies change?

Taking into account the projected positions of the new cohort of MEPs, we can forecast that the positions of the EP as a whole could change substantially in areas such as Industrial Regulation (towards a more free market direction). The chart below shows the position on this subject of all current MEPs.

Notably, the right side of this chart will weigh more in the next EP, hence the majority line (or the median point) will shift substantially to the right (note the 2 vertical lines).

NB: the names of the MEPs are hidden in the free version of this report, but we can provide them upon request.

Similarly, the position of the EP on green transition will also shift, but less so and the key contention points will still be decided by the MEPs in the middle.

Similarly for international data transfers.

How about some more concrete examples? The charts below show the amount of political traction that key policy proposals received in the current EP (the bar at the top of the chart) vs. the next EP (the bar at the bottom of the chart).

For example, the chart below shows that the Nature Restauration Law is currently projected to lack a favorable majority in the next EP. This means that a similar law, or a revision of this one, may go in a different direction than in the current EP.

However, this projection is based solely on the new arithmetic of the next EP based on the current socio-political trends. This assumes that no political party would change position between now and the start of the next EP.

Notably, between now and the elections (and after), both political parties and many stakeholders will conduct communication campaigns which may result in changes in the positions of these parties. This is where the communication experts come in and “play their role” in the democratic process.

Similarly, the focus seems to be shifting from a push for very strong due diligence requirements to supporting the economy.

Keep an eye in these type of charts on the yellow zone, which highlights the “undecided” MEPs. In many instances, these MEPs can make the difference, depending on which direction they decide to ultimately take as a result of the information they receive. This is where the public affairs professionals come in to “do their own part” of the democratic process.

You may also be interested in:

Contact as at [email protected] for suggestions, requests for services or media interviews. We deliver private analysis, presentations, regular monitoring of the positions of the EU decision-makers and many more.

Related posts