As EU institutions commemorate 1000 days since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we thought it useful to analyze the latest positioning of EU political forces represented in the European Parliament. 

Based on 52 plenary votes concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict since the start of the new EP term (namely, from July 2024 to November 2024), we are able to take an objective, data-backed approach to assess which political factions are in favour of a more assertive approach towards Russia, e.g. stricter sanctions, more military support for Ukraine, etc., and which ones call for a more conciliatory approach, meaning softer sanctions and providing only diplomatic support to Ukraine, etc.. 

The results are available in the chart below:

— How to read the chart: The parties that are at the “extreme right” of the chart are the most critical of Russia, while the parties that are at the “extreme left” of this chart are the least critical of Russia. Parties with a score of 0 have been the least supportive, based on their voting behavior, of sanctions against Russia and providing Ukraine with additional weapons, assistance and political support. Parties with a score of 100 have been the most supportive, based on their voting behavior, of sanctions against Russia and providing Ukraine with additional weapons, assistance and political support. On the vertical axis the parties are placed based on the size of their delegation in the European Parliament. 

Tip: click on the names of the political groups to find the outliers in each group. Use the filters to find parties from specific countries that you are interested in. —

As shown by the chart above, an overwhelming majority of MEPs continue to support an assertive course of action, meaning support Ukraine in all possible means. The calls to secure an immediate ceasefire, while gaining some traction in Washington after the latest elections, tend to get only around 20% of support in the European Parliament, as a considerable majority of MEPs believe that a ceasefire at this point, given the situation on the ground, would only strengthen Russia’s hand and undermine long-term peace prospects on the European continent. 

Importantly, the chart above highlights some nuances between and within the different political groups, largely driven by geography and economic ties. Patriots, ESN and The Left MEPs tend to be more on the conciliatory side, whereas EPP, S&D, Renew, ECR and the Greens/EFA are more assertive. However, national sensitivities also play a key role. For example, EPP parties from countries with closer energy ties to Russia, like Austria and Hungary, tend to be more conciliatory compared to the rest of their group (but still considerably more assertive than other national parties from their countries). 

The map below provides an overview of the average support for an assertive approach towards Russia by country: 

Unsurprisingly, Hungarians and Slovak parties in the EP are on average, more conciliatory towards Russia, in line with the positions of their national governments. These are also the countries, followed by Czechia, where we observed a bigger decrease in the assertive positioning by parties towards Russia compared to our previous assessment in 2022.  

Conversely, support for a firmer stance has increased and it is almost consensual among Nordic, Dutch, Baltic, Polish, Slovenian and Croatian parties. In other cases, such as Germany, Italy and France, the picture is more nuanced, although it is important to consider that the scores refer to the overall political scene, not the position of the current government in these countries. For example, in the case of France, the average score is lowered by the strongly conciliatory approach towards Russia by Rassemblement National, which is the biggest French delegation by far, while Macron's party and its coalition partner Les Republicains, while smaller in the EP, but in government in Paris, are strongly supportive of a firm EU stance (i.e. supporting Ukraine by all means).

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Methodological note: Our index uses objective data from the voting sessions of the European Parliament to determine what is the real position of each party, in order to reduce the distortions generated by inaccurate news. The index is transparent and you can easily track how it was built, as we are providing the full list of votes that we took into account (you can then check how the MEPs voted on each vote by navigating through the EP website, or ask for a premium subscription to our own analytical database).