The sections below provide a summary of the level of influence that each national group has exerted in the European Parliament (proportionally to their size) during the 2019-2024 EP term. The information is broken down by policy sectors, as well as categories of influence (legislative, leadership, network and voting performance). We also look forward to what we can expect for each country in the next (post June 2024 European elections) Parliament. 

Importantly, while individual contributions do play a role, it is important to keep in mind that being hard-working or engaged is not always enough to be influential in the EP. “Circumstantial” factors such as concentration or fragmentation of the delegations, belonging to the more influential political groups, average level of seniority, etc. also affect the performance of different national groups. This explains why the influence of national groups experiencing a high turnover in 2019 or having a high share of MEPs belonging to fringe groups tends to be more limited. 

Notes: 

To see the top 100 politically influential MEPs, as well as the top 20 for each policy sector, click here. 

To read forecasts about the EP elections, who the next MEPs, Commissioners are likely to be, or how the next EP will regulate differently than the current EP, click here. 

For further analysis, presentations, media interviews contact us at [email protected]. 

Below we list the situation for all 27 EU countries, in the order of their number of MEPs (from largest to smallest). 

Germany

The performance of Germans MEPs in the European Parliament is in the average. 13 Germans MEPs are featured in the top 100 most influential MEPs and Germans tend to perform above average with regards to holding leadership positions in the European Parliament.

For example, Germany tends to be more influential on regulatory topics such as agriculture, internal market or energy. For example, there are 4 German MEPs in the top 20 most influential MEPs on agriculture (Tiemo Wölken, Martin Häusling, Norbert Lins, Ulrike Müller, Delara Burkhardt), 6 Germans in the top 20 most influential MEPs on the internal market (Tiemo Wölken, Markus Ferber, Anna Cavazzini, René Repasi, Marion Walsmann, Andreas Schwab, Jens Gieseke) and 4 (Christian Ehler, Jens Geier, Markus Pieper, Peter Liese) in the top 20 most influential MEPs on energy. 

Germany tends to be more influential on other strategic areas as well, including on foreign affairs (Viola Von Cramon-Taubadel, David McAllister, Michael Gahler, Reinhard Bütikofer), trade (Michael Gahler, René Repasi, Marion Walsmann, Andreas Schwab, Bernd Lange, Daniel Caspary, Christian Doleschal) and EU institutional and constitutional affairs (Gabriele Bischoff, Rainer Wieland, Damian Boeselager, Daniel Freund, Sven Simon, Helmut Scholz).

On the other hand, Germans are punching below their weight when it comes to regulating transportation and health policies. However, there are a few German MEPs who made it in the top 20 most influential MEPs on both of these topics: Peter Liese, Jens Gieseke on transportation and Tiemo Wolken on health.

Once a beacon of stability in Europe, the German political scene is becoming more fragmented and polarised, which could impact on the German influence in the next European Parliament. While Alternative for Germany is capitalising the most on the fall in the public support for the current governing coalition, AfD faces a difficult path ahead, due to the lack of coalition partners (both domestically and at the EU level). For this reason, AfD's influence in the next EP is likely to remain limited, despite the expected gains for their ID group as a whole (the nationalist ID group is now projected to be the 3rd largest in the next EP). The other rising movement, led by former Linke leader Sahra Wagenknecht, is likely to face similar issues, as their views are not compatible with the positions of other left-wing forces. 

Nevertheless, due the big size of the German delegation in the European Parliament, the more moderate factions will retain significant influence in their respective groups, and in some cases, even these groups' leadership. This is the case of German CDU/CSU, which is likely to remain the biggest in the pivotal EPP group. Germans are also likely to keep the de-facto leadership of Greens/EFA group, although the group will probably have a smaller weight in the next EP. While shrinking slightly, the German delegations in S&D and Renew will be among the largest ones, which will likely be translated into key committee or bureau positions.

France

The overall influence of French MEPs in the European Parliament is in the lower ranks, especially due to a deep fragmentation of their national group, i.e. roughly a third of the French delegation belong to the nationalist ID group, who has been subjected to a "cordon sanitaire" who blocked their access  to leadership positions in the EP. This drives the average influence of France down. However, there are policy areas in which French have been very influential.

For example, French tend to be more influential on EU institutional and constitutional affairs, having 3 MEPs in the top 20 most influential MEPs on this topic (Pascal Durand, Sandro Gozi and Gwendoline Delbos-Corfield). France also have 4 MEPs in the top 20 most influential MEPs on agri-food related files (Pierre Karleskind, Jérémy Decerle, Pascal Canfin, and Irène Tolleret).

On the other hand, French are punching below their weight on regulatory topics, including on environment, transportation, energy and budget. They also rank low on strategic areas such as trade, foreign affairs, defence & enlargement and migration & home affairs. 

Despite their more limited influence on these policies, there are several individual French MEPs who make the top 20 most influential MEPs on budget (Valérie Hayer and Younous Omarjee), transportation (Dominique Riquet, Karima Delli), foreign affairs (Arnaud Danjean, Nathalie Loiseau) and trade (Emmanuel Maurel, Marie-Pierre Vedrenne).

French influence is unlikely to improve in the next European Parliament, as the likely increased numbers of right-wing nationalists from Zemmour’s and Le Pen’s parties would not automatically translate into increased access to key legislative and leadership positions in the European Parliament. While the chances of a future domestic victory for Rassemblement National are increasing, the party’s views on Russia & NATO and their association with Alternative for Germany, among other issues, will keep reducing its coalition-building potential at the EU level.  

As for Macron’s party, Ensemble is likely to keep the (de jure or de facto) leadership of the key Renew group and therefore would continue playing a critical role in coalition-building in the next European Parliament. However, in terms of numbers and coalition-building potential, the influence of the centrist family Renew is likely to diminish in the next legislative term, according to current polling. 

The influence of the French delegation also suffers from the low French representation in the key EPP and S&D groups, although we see different trends at the moment, with Les Républicains struggling the most in the polls, while the Socialists might gain a few seats compared to 2019 (but they would still remain smaller compared to their counterparts from Germany, Italy and Spain).  

Italy

The overall influence of the Italian MEPs in the European Parliament is in the lower ranks. As a substantial share of Italian MEPs belong to marginalised groups, this national group is under-presented in terms of leadership positions in the European Parliament. However, Italians perform slightly better when it comes to building strong networks. 

Even so, there are other policy areas in which Italians stand out. In agri-food, there are 2 MEPs in the top 20 (Paolo De Castro and Herbert Dorfmann), same as in the energy sector (Patrizia Toia and Paolo Borchia). Other topics of higher engagement for the Italians MEPs are migration (Franco Roberti, Pietro Bartolo), digital (Brando Benifei, Annalisa Tardino), and health (Alessandra Moretti, Annalisa Tardino), each of them with Italian 2 MEPs in the top 20 most influential. 

The comparatively lower level of Italian influence is explained by the high concentration of MEPs within the more isolated ID group (Lega) and the relatively high number of MEPs lacking an European affiliation (5 Star Movement). 

Looking ahead, by taking over the ECR group, Fratelli d’Italia could exert more influence compared to the winners of the previous EP elections in Italy (Lega). Also due to the likely active role of the Italian government during the top posts negotiations, the Italians in ECR could start the next term with a strong footing. Yet, the ECR group is not the most united, and cooperation with the EPP will remain difficult due Polish domestic politics, not to mention the possibility of Fidesz joining ECR. 

The Italians are also competing to become the largest delegation within the S&D family, which is possible according to current polls. This would provide the Italian PD with an edge with regards to leadership positions within the next European Parliament. 

Finally, despite their polling suggesting potential seats gains, the 5 Star Movement MEPs are still lacking a political affiliation in the European Parliament, which drastically diminishes their chances of influencing EU policies. 

Spain

Spanish MEPs rank high on activities that involve networking, performance and leadership, while their legislative engagement tends to be more limited. 

There are significant differences across policy areas, as in the case of the other national delegations.The Spaniards perform exceptionally well with regards to the debate on EU institutional and constitutional reforms, where Spain is the second most influential national delegation proportionally (top MEP: Domènec Ruiz Devesa). Spanish MEPs also perform well on migration and home affairs (top MEPs: Juan Fernando López Aguilar and Javier Zarzalejos), Health (top MEPs Susana Solís Pérez and Javier Zarzalejos), agri-food (top MEP: Clara Aguilera) and employment & social policy (Lina Gálvez Muñoz).

By contrast, they are below average on internal market and environmental policy, but still manage to have some top MEPs in these sectors, particularly Jonás Fernández (internal market) and César Luena (environment). 

When looking at the next term, due to the declining popularity of Ciudadanos, Spaniards will lose most of their representation in Macron's Renew, where they are currently one of the largest delegations, thus losing the opportunity to influence the direction of the pivotal centrist group. However, the Spanish political scene remains comparatively cohesive, as PP and PSOE are leading by far in the polls for European elections in Spain. 

Although they are facing a few losses, the PSOE delegation is likely to remain one of the largest within the S&D group and to retain significant influence inside the centre-left family. Importantly, the Spanish delegation in the pivotal EPP is likely to become the second largest in the group, and one of the largest in the European Parliament as a whole. Therefore, we can expect an increase of the influence of the Spanish in the next European Parliament. 

Poland

The performance of Polish MEPs in the European Parliament is in the lower ranks, although they tend to perform better with regards to holding leadership positions in the European Parliament.

Across policy areas, Poles rank better on regulatory topics such as health (with two MEPs in the top 20 most influential, Joanna Kopcińska and Adam Jarubas), budget (Ryszard Czarnecki), and energy (Jerzy Buzek and Zdzisław Krasnodębski). They also tend to exert more influence on trade (Danuta Maria Hübner)

On the other hand, Poles are punching below their weight on most Green Deal topics, including on agri-food and environment, as well as on finance and migration. Yet, there are a few Polish MEPs among the top 20 most influential on environment (Anna Zalewska), migration (Patryk Jaki) and finance (Danuta Maria Hübner).

Polish influence in the next European Parliament might increase, as the Polish are set to get one of the largest delegations within the pivotal EPP group, while their representation in the centrist Renew group is also set to increase. 

Yet, a significant share of the Polish seats are likely to be allocated to parties to the right of the EPP group. Law and Justice is likely to face a difficult situation, as it is likely to lose the leadership of the ECR group and be seen as an obstacle to EPP-ECR cooperation. Also, in terms of alliances, involving Orban’s Fidesz in ECR might provide PiS with a close partner on issues such as civil liberties, rule of law, the status of Visegrad bloc in the EU, etc. However, in terms of optics, Fidesz' positions on Ukraine remain very unpopular among the Polish public, not to mention that this would further diminish any chances of a closer cooperation between the EPP and ECR groups.

Romania

Romania has generally punched above its weight in the current EP, especially when it comes to leadership positions, as well as building strong networks in the EP, while it has been weaker when it comes to actual influence over legislative files. 

Romanians have been rather influential on budgetary matters (with 4 Romanians in the top 20: Siegfried Mureşan, Marian-Jean Marinescu, Claudiu Manda, Ramona Strugariu) and a strong influence on institutional matters (Top MEPs: Ramona Strugariu & Loránt Vincze). 

They have also exerted influence on agriculture, energy (Dan Nica & Marian-Jean Marinescu) and health (Cristian-Silviu Buşoi & Tudor Ciuhodaru), as well as on trade (Maria Grapini & Iuliu Winkler), transportation (Marian-Jean Marinescu) and migration (Ramona Strugariu & Loránt Vincze). 

By contrast, Romanians' influence is average on issues such as finance, foreign affairs and social policy, but some MEPs do punch above their weight, such as Dragoş Tudorache (foreign affairs) and Dragoş Pîslaru (social policy).

While the Romanian influence in the European parliament has benefited during this EP term from their strong concentration within the most influential centrist families, the political scene in Romania is becoming more polarised, as in the rest of the continent, which may lead to less influence in the next term. 

Notably, Romanian delegations within the pivotal EPP and Renew groups are set to shrink, while new right-wing parties would gain substantial ground. While right-wing party AUR aims to join the ECR group, they are not compatible with Fidesz, which could leave them sidelined in the next European Parliament. 

Yet, also due to the substantial size of the country, the Romanian delegations within EPP and S&D would remain among the biggest in the respective groups, thus allowing Romanians to keep accessing key positions and files in the European Parliament.

the Netherlands

The influence of Dutch MEPs is above the average in the current EP. They especially punch above their weight on legislative activities (ranking 3rd among national groups overall), while their representation in leadership positions is more limited. 

Dutch MEPs perform best on transportation and migration, where they rank 1st, followed by Green Deal-related areas such as agriculture and environment. 

The MEPs that secure the top 20 on influence on these areas are Bas Eickhout, Caroline Nagtegaal & Vera Tax (transportation), Jeroen Lenaers, Tineke Strik, Malik Azmani & Paul Tang (migration), Jan Huitema, Mohammed Chahim, Bas Eickhout & Lara Wolters (environment) and Jan Huitema & Anja Hazekamp (agriculture).

Dutch MEPs also score high on topics such as energy (top 20: Esther de Lange) and internal market (top 20: Jan Huitema & Bas Eickhout). As expected, they also perform well on trade (top 20: Mohammed Chahim, Samira Rafaela & Catharina Rinzema).

By contrast, the Dutch have below average scores on strategic issues such as institutional issues and foreign affairs.

While Dutch influence in the current EP has been remarkable, the increasing volatility of the Dutch political spectrum will be a key challenge in the future. 

Current projections show that Dutch representation within key groups such as the S&D and Renew will diminish, while a significant component of the future Dutch EP delegation will be concentrated in the ID group, which has been so far isolated by the other political families within the European Parliament. As mentioned in the case of Austria, cooperation between the EPP and ID group is currently impossible due to Alternative for Germany being part of the ID group (among other issues). 

While the Dutch might retain a significant representation within the EPP group due to the rise of new parties, such Omtzigt’s NSC and farmers’ BBB, this would likely involve a significant turnover, with many newcomers joining the EPP ranks. 

Belgium

The influence of Belgian MEPs in the European Parliament is in the average, although the Belgians tend to punch above their weight when it comes to building strong networks in the European Parliament. Their voting behaviour also indicates a high level of voting participation and engagement. On the flip side, Belgians are under-represented with regards to leadership positions in the European Parliament. 

There are also significant differences across the policy areas. For example, Belgians are doing exceptionally well when it comes to budget files, ranking 2nd and having 2 MEPs in the top 20 most influential MEPs on budget (Olivier Chastel and Johan Van Overtveldt). They also tend to be more influential on areas such as foreign policy (Hilde Vautmans), trade (Geert Bourgeois), EU institutional and constitutional affairs. 

Conversely, Belgian influence has been below the average in other policy areas, including on some of the Green Deal topics such as agri-food and environment. They also punch below their weight on energy and digital files.

According to our latest projections, Belgian representation in the next European Parliament is likely to remain highly fragmented across the different political groups, which has not prevented Belgians from gaining significant influence on key policy areas in the past. Notably, Belgian representation is likely to increase within The Left, and (perhaps surprisingly due to the Qatargate) within the S&D group. 

NB: S&D parties are also gaining in the other countries involved in the Qatargate, e.g. Italy and Greece. 

Belgian influence is likely to be challenged in the next term, as the strong Belgian representation in left-wing groups clashes with the right-wing trend observed in other countries.

Czech Republic

The performance of Czech MEPs in the European Parliament is in the higher ranks, especially due to their strong representation in leadership positions and prolific activities as legislators (4th on legislation proportionally).

There are also significant differences across the policy areas. For example, Czechs tend to be more influential on internal market related files (Dita Charanzová), as well as on budget (Tomáš Zdechovský) and finance (Luděk Niedermayer). They also rank well on regulatory files such as agriculture (Veronika Vrecionová), trade (Dita Charanzová) and information & communication. 

Conversely, Czechs punch below their weight on strategic areas such as EU institutional and constitutional affairs, as well as the key topic of foreign policy, defence and enlargement, as well as migration & home affairs.

According to our latest projections, the political composition of the Czech delegation in the European Parliament is likely to remain relatively stable, although their numbers in Renew are likely to increase substantially. This is likely to pose a significant headache for the Renew family as it finds itself at odds with the more national-conservative platform of ANO 2011’s leader Andrej Babiš. ANO 2011 could leverage its larger representation in an overall weaker Renew group, but it would probably need to moderate some of its positions to avoid clashes with the other members of the centrist family. 

Leading governing party ODS is also facing issues of its own, especially since their approach to several topics, including rule of law and institutional issues, tends to clash with the prevailing views within the ECR group. If Fidesz joins ECR, their positions could become even more minoritarian. 

Greece 

The performance of Greece MEPs in the European Parliament is in the lower ranks, although there are policy areas in which they score better. 

For example, Greek MEPs are punching above their weight on regulatory topics, including on environment, with Maria Spyraki Pyraki being in the top 20 most influential MEPs in this category, and on transportation with Elena Kountoura being in the top 20 most influential MEPs in this category. At the same time, other Greek MEPs stand out on health (Stelios Kympouropoulos) and trade (Anna-Michelle Asimakopoulou). 

Contrarily to other countries, Greek representation within the “traditional” EPP and S&D groups is likely to increase after the elections in June, possibly providing Greek representatives with more access to key roles in the European Parliament. With governing party New Democracy polling high in latest surveys, their centre-right MEPs will try to leverage their strong position in the EPP to gain more access to reports and leadership positions. 

Importantly, the Greek political scene remains highly fragmented, as new parties are fighting to overcome the threshold to gain a representative in the next European Parliament. The influence of the more radical parties might be limited due to their small size, a trend that is further exacerbated by the latest split within the left-wing camp .

Hungary

The performance of Hungarian MEPs in the European Parliament is in the lower ranks, especially since most Hungarian MEPs currently lack an European affiliation. However, there are policy areas in which they score better, such as the budget (with Katalin Cseh among top 20 most influential MEPs on this topic) and foreign affairs.     

The Hungarian political scene is still dominated by Orban’s Fidesz party, which has a big impact on the overall statistics on Hungarian influence at the EU level. The governing party will not be able to have much clout in the European Parliament without a political affiliation. Although the ID group would warmly welcome Orban, joining the ECR group could help Fidesz regain part of the influence that they lost when leaving the EPP. As for the opposition parties, their representation is likely to remain relatively small due to the current level of fragmentation. The party Our Homeland Movement (which is more right-wing than Fidesz) might also gain a couple of seats, thus increasing the share of Hungarian MEPs sitting to the fringes of the political spectrum.

Portugal

The performance of Portuguese MEPs in the European Parliament is in the higher ranks. They are 3rd delegation by proportional political influence and the second most prolific legislators proportionally. As in the case of the other national delegations, there are significant differences across the policy areas. 

For example, Portuguese are doing exceptionally well when it comes to the internal market ( Lídia Pereira, Maria-Manuel Leitão-Marques) and finance (Pedro Marques, José Gusmão) related files, ranking 1st by proportional influence on both. They also tend to be more influential on regulatory topics such as agriculture & fisheries (ranking 2nd), environment (Isabel Carvalhais) and energy (Maria da Graça Carvalho). 

Their influence on strategic areas including foreign affairs, defence & enlargement (Isabel Santos) and EU institutional and constitutional affairs (Paulo Rangel) is also strong.

On the other hand, there are some policy areas in which Portuguese rank below the average, such as trade. 

Portuguese MEPs might be able to maintain their strong influence in the next European Parliament. The Portuguese PSD and PS are likely to keep their strong numbers within the EPP and S&D groups, while the Portuguese representation within the Renew family is also likely to increase. 

While we see signs of polarisation within the Portuguese political scene, the rise of right-wing Chega is so far compensated by the losses faced by the parties to the very left of the political spectrum, especially the Communists. Similarly to other rising nationalist parties, Chega’s association with the ID group, which has been subject so far to a “cordon sanitaire” by the other political groups, diminishes their chances of exerting significant influence in the next European Parliament.

Sweden

The performance of Swedish MEPs in the European Parliament is below the average, although there are significant differences across the policy areas.

Swedish MEPs do particularly well on migration and on environment (Jessica Polfjärd). Swedes also do well in the agri-food sector (Jessica Polfjärd is in our top 20 on agriculture & fisheries), as well as in social policy (Evin Incir, Alice Kuhnke) and health (Heléne Fritzon). On the flip side, their influence has been more limited on topics such as the EU budget, EU institutions and foreign affairs, defence & enlargement (despite the higher influence of Tomas Tobé).

The upcoming elections are likely to bring significant changes to the political composition of the Swedish representation in the European Parliament. Due to the increasing popularity of the Swedish Social Democrats, the Swedish are likely to get a stronger voice within the key S&D family after the elections. 

Similarly, Swedish right-wing party SD is likely to gain ground in June. They might gain more space for maneuver if the ECR will be able to leverage its likely new Italian leadership to establish a better working relationship with the EPP on specific policy areas. 

On the flip side, Swedish parties from EPP and Renew are set to lose ground, thus diminishing the Swedish influence in these pivotal groups. 

Austria

The influence of Austrian MEPs in the European Parliament is in the average, although there are significant differences across the policy areas. 

For example, Austrians tend to be more influential on strategic areas such as foreign policy, defence and enlargement (top MEP: Andreas Schieder) , as well as EU institutional and constitutional affairs (Angelika Winzig). Additionally, Austrians are punching above their weight when it comes to some of the Green Deal topics, especially agri-food (Sarah Wiener and Alexander Bernhuber) and the environment, but some Austrian MEPs also stand out on transportation (Barbara Thaler) and energy (Claudia Gamon). 

Conversely, Austrian influence has been below the average in other policy areas, such as health, digital, internal market, competition and taxation, social policy, as well as migration (despite the latter topic being rather prominent in the domestic political debate).

Our latest projections forecast an increase in the size of the FPO delegation (ID group) in the next European Parliament, to the detriment of the Austrian representation within the EPP and, to a lesser extent, S&D groups. These developments will be challenging for Austrian influence in the next European Parliament, as the ID group has been so far subject to a “cordon sanitaire”, and thus unable to access leadership positions in the EP or to take on important files. Although ID members might gain governmental positions in Austria, the Netherlands, among others, EP cooperation between German-led EPP and the ID group cannot be foreseen, especially due to the presence of Alternative for Germany within the ID group (but not only).

Bulgaria

The performance of Bulgarians MEPs in the European Parliament is in the average, especially when it comes to holding leadership positions in the European Parliament. Yet, Bugarians punch slightly above their weight when it comes to shaping key legislation and building networks both inside and outside the EP. 

There are also significant differences across the policy areas. For example, Bulgarians are doing exceptionally well on migration & home affairs (Top MEP: Petar Vitanov), ranking 3rd. They also tend to be more influential on regulatory topics such as transportation, energy (top MEP: Petar Vitanov) as well as the budget (Top MEP: Andrey Novakov).

Conversely, Bulgarian influence has been below the average in other policy areas, including on some environmental topics, as well as on files related to the internal market and trade. 

When looking at the projections for next year, we see that Bulgarians are set to keep strong representation in the main EP groups, especially the EPP, but also the Renew group (especially if the governing party We Continue the Change joins the centrist family). Their central positions could provide the two governing parties with significant influence in the next European Parliament. 

Yet, Bulgarians could lose significant ground within the S&D group, while we also observe a certain degree of polarisation within the Bulgarian political scene, with the rise of the Revival party (ID group).

Denmark

The influence of Danish MEPs in the European Parliament is in the average, although they are among the most influential in terms of legislative activities (5th most prolific legislators proportionally). On the flip side, Danish are less represented in terms of holding leadership positions in the European Parliament. 

There are also significant differences across the policy areas. For example, Danes are doing exceptionally well when it comes to energy files, ranking 1st and having 3 MEPs in the top 20 most influential MEPs on energy (Pernille Weiss, Niels Fuglsang and Morten Peteresen). They also tend to be more influential on other Green-deal related topics such as transportation and environment (Pernille Weiss), as well as regulatory topics such as internal market (Christel Schaldemose) and finance (Kira Marie Peter-Hansen). 

Conversely, Danish influence has been below average in other policy areas, including on strategic areas such as foreign policy, defence and enlargement, trade and EU institutional and constitutional affairs.

Due to the high level of fragmentation of the Danish political scene, the political composition of the Danish delegation in the EP is not set to change drastically in the next European Parliament. Danish representation in the S&D group is likely to remain strong, while the Danish are also likely to gain ground in the increasingly pivotal EPP group. According to the latest polls, Danish Renew parties are struggling the most at the moment. 

Notably, the Danish political make-up is one of the most left-leaning, and groups with Danish presence, such as S&D and Renew, are likely to lose some influence in the next EP. Yet, Danish MEPs, similarly to other Nordic delegations, aren’t the most keen on strictly following their groups’ lines and tend to build ties across political groups. This more “independent” attitude is likely to be a key asset in an increasingly fragmented European Parliament.

Finland

The influence of the Finnish MEPs in the European Parliament is in the higher ranks.  They are ranked 4th in terms of proportional influence, especially due to their prolific legislative activities. Differently from other Nordic delegations, the Finns also punch above their weight when it comes to holding leadership positions in the European Parliament.

There are also significant differences across the policy areas. For example, Finns are doing exceptionally well when it comes to some of the Green Deal topics, such as agri-food (where they are the most influential proportionally; top MEP: Elsi Katainen), environment (here they are the most influential proportionally; top MEP: Nils Torvalds), transportation (Henna Virkkunen) and energy. They also tend to be more influential in other key areas, such as digital (Miapetra Kumpula-Natri and Henna Virkkunen), budget (Petri Sarvamaa) and finance (Eero Heinäluoma).

On the other hand, there are some policy areas in which Finnish influence has been below the average, including on foreign policy, defence and enlargement, as well as on health and employment & social policy (despite Sirpa Pietikäinen being in our top 20 list of most influential MEPs on social policy).

Finnish MEPs have a consolidated tradition of strong influence in the European Parliament, underscored by their engagement with legislative files. This is unlikely to change due to the upcoming EP elections. 

In this regard, the political trends in Finland are somewhat in line with the broader trends in Europe, as we foresee gains for the EPP and ECR parties, alongside the losses for the Renew and Greens/EFA parties. Finnish representation within the S&D group is also likely to increase substantially within the next European Parliament. The Finns are likely to play a key role especially in the two largest EP groups, EPP and S&D.

Slovakia

The influence of Slovak MEPs tends to be below average. However, Slovaks are doing better on the internal market (Top 20 MEP: Ivan Štefanec) and on institutional affairs (Top 20: Vladimír Bilčík) and offer their best performance on employment & social policy (Top 20: Lucia Ďuriš Nicholsonová) and environmental policy (Top 20: Martin Hojsík)

Conversely, they have more limited influence on topics such as budget and finance, as well as agriculture, energy, transportation and health. 

The outlook for Slovak influence in the next European Parliament is likely to remain negative, due to the fragmentation of the Slovak political scene, as well as the weak Slovak representation within the most influential political families. While the Slovak Renew delegation might become stronger due to the strong polling of Progressive Slovakia, Slovaks remain under-represented within the EPP family, as well as the S&D group. 

Both SMER and Hlas are currently suspended from the Socialist family, which would put these MEPs in the unaffiliated group of policy-makers. Without a political group, MEPs cannot get leadership positions or become legislators on Parliamentary files. Therefore, it is likely that these two parties will negotiate with the S&D family after the elections to re-join their ranks, but SMER would also need to moderate their positions on sensitive issues in order to justify their re-admission.

Ireland

The performance of Irish MEPs in the European Parliament is in the average. Irish MEPs tend to perform below the average with regards to holding leadership positions in the European Parliament, while they tend to have more solid networks and a strong voting performance (e.g. participating and winning votes).

Irish MEPs tend to be more influential in strategic areas such as finance where they are ranked 2nd (there are 2 Irish among the top 20 most influential MEPs in this category: Frances Fitzgerald and Billy Kelleher) or social policy (Frances Fitzgerald and Maria Walsh). There are also other areas like transportation (Ciaran Cuffe) where we can find Irish MEPs among the top influencers.

Looking ahead, Irish representation in the next EP is set to change to a substantial degree. While the outcome of the Irish EP elections is notoriously hard to predict due to the complex electoral system, latest polls show that the voters are turning more towards the left-wing parties, and especially Sinn Fein (The Left). This would come to the detriment of the Irish representation within pivotal groups such as the EPP, and to a lesser extent, Renew. 

The Irish could leverage their stronger positions in The Left (they could be one of the largest delegations if independents are included) to gain more visibility in the Parliament, although, due to the negative Parliamentary arithmetic, stronger ties with the more moderate groups would be necessary in order to exert substantial influence.

Croatia

The influence of Croatian MEPs in the European Parliament is slightly below the average. While Croatians are well represented in leadership positions (both institutional and political group positions), they punch below their weight when it comes to legislative engagement.

There are also significant differences across the policy areas. Croatians are doing exceptionally well on health, ranking 2nd and having one MEP in the top 20 most influential MEPs on health files (Tomislav Sokol). They also tend to be more influential on strategic areas such as foreign policy (Željana Zovko and Tonino Picula), defence and enlargement.

Conversely, Croatian influence has been below the average in other policy areas, including on regulatory topics such as energy and transportation. They also punch below their weight on migration & home affairs, employment & social policy and trade.

Our latest forecast points to an increasingly right-wing Croatian representation in the European Parliament, which is in line with the overall trends for EP elections. The Croatians are likely to remain well-represented in the EPP, which might end up as the pivotal group in the next European Parliament. 

Yet, other Croatian parties could lose ground in the other centrist groups, while more fringe forces to the left and right wing part of the political spectrum gain momentum. As new Croatian parties are set to join the European Parliament, it will be key for the future Croatian MEPs to build strong ties with other national groups in order to compensate for the likely small size of their delegations.

Lithuania

The influence of Lithuanian MEPs in the European Parliament is in the lower ranks, although there are significant differences across the policy areas. 

For example, Lithuanians are doing exceptionally well on foreign affairs, ranking 3rd and having 2 MEPs in the top 20 most influential MEPs on this topic (Petras Auštrevičius and Rasa Juknevičienė). They also tend to have more influence on agriculture & fisheries and trade. 

On the other hand, Lithuanians are punching below their weight on some of the regulatory topics, including on transportation and energy, as well as on EU institutional and constitutional reforms and migration. 

The Lithuanian political scene is likely to remain highly fragmented in the near future, thus affecting their influence in the European Parliament. Interestingly, Lithuanian polls show an opposite trend compared to the rest of Europe, as left-leaning parties gain ground to the detriment of the centre-right bloc. Therefore, we are likely to see an increased Lithuanian representation in groups such as the Greens/EFA and S&D inside a more right-leaning European Parliament. While this is likely to be a challenge for the influence of Lithuanians, the Lithuanian parties will try to leverage their stronger positions in left-leaning groups to access “heavier” legislative reports and key leadership positions. 

Latvia

The influence of Latvian MEPs in the European Parliament is in the higher ranks, especially due to their strong representation in leadership positions, activities as legislators, and their solid network, with one MEP in the top 100 most influential MEPs, Roberts Zile.

Although Latvian influence has been below the average in some policy areas, such as migration, foreign affairs (despite the latter topic being rather prominent in the domestic political debate) or agri-food, at the same time they are punching above their weight when it comes to Transportation (2nd most influential delegation overall - with Roberts Zile among the top 20 most influential in this sector), as well as digital and finance.

So far, Latvians have been able to exert a substantial level of influence (proportionally speaking) despite the high level of fragmentation of the Latvian political scene. The outlook for the next legislative mandate is even more challenging, as the few Latvian representatives are set to be spread out across the political spectrum. Furthermore, new Latvian parties which are currently unaffiliated are set to gain seats in June. Their choices when it comes to the European political families to join will have an impact on the general Latvian influence on the key policy debates taking place in the European Parliament.

Slovenia

The Slovenian influence in the European Parliament is below average, especially due to their limited representation in leadership positions and comparatively lower legislative engagement. However, this changes across the different policy areas. 

For instance, the Slovenians punch above their weight in areas such as health, where they are the 5th most influential national group proportionally (Top MEP: Irena Joveva) and especially employment & social policy, where the Slovenians are the second most influential delegation overall due to the strong Slovenian representation in EMPL. Slovenians are also performing relatively well on environmental (top MEP: Milan Brglez) and foreign policy topics. 

Conversely, Slovenians tend to punch below their weight on other regulatory areas such as financial, digital and the internal market.

In the next European Parliament, Slovenian MEPs are still likely to be concentrated in the main political groups, especially Renew Europe and the EPP. While fringe forces to the very right of the political spectrum are rising across Europe, Slovenia hasn’t been yet touched by the right-wing nationalist wave. In a way, this could be an opportunity for Slovenians to increase their influence in the next European Parliament, as they could leverage their positions within the centrist groups to gain more clout on key decisions in the legislative term.

Estonia

The influence of Estonian MEPs in the European Parliament is in the average, The Estonians stand out for their representation in leadership positions, as well as their high voting performance (e.g. they tend to participate and win votes more than other national groups). 

There are also significant differences across the policy areas. For example, Estonians are doing exceptionally well in foreign affairs, defence & enlargement, ranking 1st overall and having one MEP in the top 20 most influential MEPs on this topic (Sven Mikser). They also tend to be more influential on other strategic areas, such as trade and digital policy (where Estonians are 2nd) and migration & home affairs (Marina Kaljurand). 

Conversely, Estonian influence has been below the average in other policy areas, including on regulatory topics such as environment, energy and health. They also punch below their weight on employment & social affairs and the budget. 

When looking at the next term, the latest projections show that Estonian MEPs are still likely to remain concentrated in the more influential centrist groups. Compared to the current EP, Estonian representation is likely to increase in the pivotal EPP group, while Estonian parties from the Renew and S&D groups are set to lose ground. Regardless of the electoral changes, we expect Estonians to remain engaged with the topics of key strategic interest for the small Baltic country, such as foreign affairs and digital policy. 

Cyprus

The performance of Cypriot MEPs in the European Parliament is in the lower ranks, although there are policy areas in which they score better.

For example, Cypriots tend to be more influential on strategic areas such as foreign policy defence and enlargement. They also punch above their weight on health (thus mirroring the portfolio of the Cypriot Commissioner in the next European Parliament) and employment & social policy related files. Overall, Demetris Papadakis is the Cypriot MEP who ranks the highest in our assessment of the political influence of MEPs.

Given the limited number of seats, the political composition of the Cypriot national group is likely to remain relatively stable despite the elections, thus maintaining their current representation in the S&D, The Left, and EPP groups. While Cypriot influence might improve in the next European Parliament, most Cypriot MEPs will be facing an uphill battle as their left-leaning views are likely to clash with the rising right-wing influence in the European Parliament as a whole. In order to overcome this challenge, Cypriot MEPs will need to build stronger networks with like-minded delegations across the groups to enhance their influence.

Luxembourg

The performance of Luxembourgish MEPs in the European Parliament is in the higher ranks (they are top delegation by proportional influence overall) , especially due to their strong representation in leadership positions and prolific activities as legislators.

There are also significant differences across the policy areas. For example, Luxembourgers are doing exceptionally well when it comes to strategic topics such as foreign policy (Isabel Wiseler-Lima and Charles Goerens), trade (Christophe Hansen) and EU institutional and constitutional affairs. They also rank first on health (Tilly Metz) and employment & social policy (Marc Angel). Moreover, their influence on the regulatory topics such as transportation, agriculture & fisheries, and budget is also substantial.

On the other hand, there are some policy areas in which Luxembourgers’ influence is more limited, including on migration, energy, environment and finance 

Looking ahead, electoral trends suggest that Luxembourgish influence is likely to remain relatively strong in the next European Parliament as well. In fact, the small country defies the trend of political polarisation observed across the continent, as Luxembourgish voters are sticking to the traditional political forces, such as the EPP, Renew and S&D. Currently, the party of former Commission President Juncker CSV (EPP) enjoys the strongest momentum after winning the national elections last fall. Due to their strong representation in the centrist groups, Luxembourish MEPs are likely to keep punching above their weight in the next Parliament, both in terms of leadership and legislative positions.

Malta

Proportionally speaking, Malta has the second top overall influence score. Notably, Maltese MEPs have the strongest representation in leadership positions and the strongest networks. They are also punching above their weight on legislative matters. 

The Maltese perform well across most issues. They are especially influential on digital matters, followed by green-focused issues such as environment and energy, as well as varied topics including health, employment & social policy (with a top 20 MEP being David Casa), finance (top 20: Alfred Sant) and EU institutions.

There are some exceptions, as the Maltese have more limited influence on topics such as agriculture, trade and foreign affairs.

The Maltese political scene is rather stable, which tends to have a positive impact on the Maltese influence at the EU level. One of the key questions is whether Maltese MEP Roberta Metsola will be able to retain its leadership of the legislative institution. A second mandate will depend on the negotiations on the political leadership of the EU institutions. While according to the current projections, the EPP is likely to be in a relatively strong position in the next political mandate, the centre-right political family won’t be able to claim all leadership positions for itself. 

Regardless of the outcome of such a process, we expect Maltese MEPs to be able to leverage their positions within the key EPP and S&D groups to keep punching above their weight when influencing decisions in the next European Parliament.