Our current projections suggest that at least 57% of the MEPs will be replaced next year. 

In order to get a strong head start into the new legislative term, stakeholders need to start knowing and engaging with the potential new MEPs as early as possible, as well as understanding which incumbent MEPs are likely to return or not. 

As shown in our latest electoral analysis, the next European Parliament is likely to be more polarised and fragmented compared to the current one, which means that advocacy groups will have to reach out to an increasing number of decision-makers in order to secure favourable majorities. 

We are collecting information from across the EU to help with this process and already have insights on the developments in several countries, such as Germany, France, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and Czechia. Gradually, we are discovering new likely MEPs which can be influential in the next EP term. For example, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, who is likely to be elected as the leading candidate of German Free Democratic Party (FDP), is set to play an important role in shaping EU’s defence and foreign policy in the next term.

There are other German women who are likely to become key MEPs the next Parliament, such as Andrea Wechsler (head of CDU list in Baden-Wurttemberg), who has a strong background in economics, trade, intellectual property and competition policy, and Christine Singer, leading candidate of the Free Voters’ party, who has strong ties with the farming sector and a keen interest in agri-food.

In another area, if elected on the German Pirate’s list, Anja Hirschel would become one of the main allies of the activists campaigning against mass surveillance and strict enforcement of digital copyright.

On the other hand, some familiar faces (incumbent MEPs) are likely to gain further influence as they become more senior MEPs after their likely re-election, such as Daniel Caspary (active on trade), Christine Schneider (active on rural areas), Andreas Schwab and Christel Schaldemose (active on digital issues) and Tomas Tobé (active on migration and development), among many others.

Over the upcoming months, we will provide our partners with the full picture of the MEPs who are likely to stay for another term, as well as the profiles of the likely new MEPs. We will update this information regularly all the way to next year’s elections. 

Feel free to contact us at [email protected] for information on the positioning of MEPs and Governments across all areas, as well as forecasts on the shake-up of the positions of power in the EU institutions in 2024.